Post by ninja01 on Oct 8, 2014 15:55:45 GMT -8
I do think parts for many vintage watches (which are no longer supplied by the manufacturer) will be an increasingly important commodity going forward. These stems are - I think - a prime example.
But, yes - you do need to do a careful cost/benefits analysis AND hook up with the right people with both the mechanical skills and business sense to make your investment payoff. That guy you've talked with does not quite sound like the right one to me!! One thing to consider is your "payback time" - for your $3K investment, how long would it take to earn it back (in net profits, not just revenues)?? A very important thing to consider. If a year - sounds like a good investment. If 5 or 10 years, your opportunity cost may be way too high here!! I have an Econ degree by the way...
UPDATE:
You will need to do a careful market survey. Check out all the spare parts auctions (like in eBay.PH or forum FS posts), see what the response is to them when they come up - what do they go for?? Do they almost always sell out or do they linger unsold?? Write down your observations over a several month or year time-frame too!! Written results can then be analyzed later & will give you much better market projections than just "eyeballing" the sales/auctions and not writing them systematically for future analysis. Keep your research written & structured, put it all inh a spreadsheet or at least a paper notebook. When you have a sufficient sample size (to minimize statistical error), then go thru them all and and analyze the sales & prices obtained vs. the non-sales. See what exactly sells, and for how much. Estimate from those how big of a market there really is! Checking on the number of sales/auctions of complete watches using those specific parts is also a way of estimating the potential market size. If there are hundreds or thousands of successful 6139 (etc.) sales every month, you have a potentially large market. If only a dozen or so each month, well it may be a rather small market waiting for all those watches to need a new stem.
I would not rely totally on a survey question like you've posted here to be sufficient for you to justify a several thousand dollar investment ... get the hard numbers from a real market survey and the estimates based off those "facts" or "datapoints" instead.
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We are on the very edges of a super-typhoon here & lots of rain, so very bad DSL carrier ... I have to post a little bit of text at a time, so have patience please! At least this way I get some of my thoughts out while I have carrier, then add later when carrier returns [15 secs on; a couple minutes off]
But, yes - you do need to do a careful cost/benefits analysis AND hook up with the right people with both the mechanical skills and business sense to make your investment payoff. That guy you've talked with does not quite sound like the right one to me!! One thing to consider is your "payback time" - for your $3K investment, how long would it take to earn it back (in net profits, not just revenues)?? A very important thing to consider. If a year - sounds like a good investment. If 5 or 10 years, your opportunity cost may be way too high here!! I have an Econ degree by the way...
UPDATE:
You will need to do a careful market survey. Check out all the spare parts auctions (like in eBay.PH or forum FS posts), see what the response is to them when they come up - what do they go for?? Do they almost always sell out or do they linger unsold?? Write down your observations over a several month or year time-frame too!! Written results can then be analyzed later & will give you much better market projections than just "eyeballing" the sales/auctions and not writing them systematically for future analysis. Keep your research written & structured, put it all inh a spreadsheet or at least a paper notebook. When you have a sufficient sample size (to minimize statistical error), then go thru them all and and analyze the sales & prices obtained vs. the non-sales. See what exactly sells, and for how much. Estimate from those how big of a market there really is! Checking on the number of sales/auctions of complete watches using those specific parts is also a way of estimating the potential market size. If there are hundreds or thousands of successful 6139 (etc.) sales every month, you have a potentially large market. If only a dozen or so each month, well it may be a rather small market waiting for all those watches to need a new stem.
I would not rely totally on a survey question like you've posted here to be sufficient for you to justify a several thousand dollar investment ... get the hard numbers from a real market survey and the estimates based off those "facts" or "datapoints" instead.
==============================
We are on the very edges of a super-typhoon here & lots of rain, so very bad DSL carrier ... I have to post a little bit of text at a time, so have patience please! At least this way I get some of my thoughts out while I have carrier, then add later when carrier returns [15 secs on; a couple minutes off]