Conditional Rarity

[cd_god]

In the coin collecting community there is what is known as "conditional rarity"

There may be millions of a coin minted but many were spent and worn down.  The best of the best are rarely found.

Compared to watches the common mall store ones are worn but the "collector" aka JDM models  or limited edition models are always treasured and preserved.

Unlike watches there is a record kept as to how many of a certain coin for each year and mint were made.

So let's compare the 62MAS Seiko diver to the 1915 Barber half dollar.

There were 138,00 1915 Barber half dollars minted only one year and at one mint facility in 1915.

The 62MAS was made for 3 years 1965-1967 (36 possible months) with no known records to this date (for all Seiko models) of how many of each movement/case combo were made each month.

So based on the Seiko 7 digit serial numbering system of that time the first number is the year and the next is the month and the last 5 numbers (10 X 10 X 10 X 10 X 10) is 100,000 per month possible.  That's 3.6 million possible 62MAS out there.

Anywho the 1915 Barber half, as rare as it looks on paper, is not all that scarce to find on EBAY at any given time although most are heavily worn and were not preserved as many of the original Seikos we now love were destined for Asian markets where they were worn / beaten daily the same as the 1915 half dollar was spent daily at the time.

Coins can't be "restored" by an expert like watches can.  Once you spit on a coin no matter how "new" it looks at wipe it off with your shirt it is now worth 50% of before you spit on it because you have now "cleaned" it and have hairlines on it.

You spit on you watch to "clean" the crystal (I do it many times a day) no harm no foul.

So back to conditional rarity.

Evan beat to crap 62MAS watches still command $300.  Near mint are maybe $900.  NOS is maybe $1500 (realistically not that one douche that wants $5K on Ebay)

The 1915 Barber half can range from $40 to $20K.

The spread does not seem proportional.

There are several price guides published monthly including at least 25 different values for each coin based on condition for coin values.

There is no watch price guide only what someone will pay on EBAY which is skewed by shill bidders.

So for watch pricing do you base it on:

The original number made available (unknown unless it is a modern numbered LE)?

The number left today (unknown and the number listed for sale do not represent the keepers in personal collections)?

Are there more coin collectors than watch collectors?

Are there more people who wanted a 62MAS when it came out in 1965 and couldn't own one as a child (who would now be 65 years old ) than someone born in 1900 who wanted a 1915 half dollar as a child (who would now be 110 years old )?

As an aside coin collecting is known as the "Hobby of Kings" while watch collecting is known as "owning more than 1 watch to make sure you wake up in time to get your shitty job on time and can make a run for the exit at 5PM (unless you are betting on Cooter) 

And I missed out on this one which had 15 minuted left when I started this post and missed out on while proof reading

www.ebay.com/itm/1915-BARBER-HALF-DOLLAR-FINAL-YEAR-ISSUE-KEY-DATE-NICE-GOOD-COIN-/361259086221?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&autorefresh=true&hash=item541cb8318d&nma=true&si=juiJh9qK1yZS%252FzG0fcBFDrFwKrc%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

[philsinclair]

Flawed premise as there wern't that many 62MAS made and the number you use might possibly been the total output  of Seiko for those three years. When I first joined the old SCWF, many members thought 62 MAS as being a myth there were so few about. The advancement of the Internet has contributed to us seeing many emerge but still they are not for sale that often. The prices you quote are also quite low and would suggest any available at those prices should be snapped up immediately as they can be resold for more than that. As far as genuine NOS goes, name your figure, it will be much more than $1500. Cheers Phil

[Adrian-VTA]

Thanks for the story Josh.

I like hearing about coin stuff, as I don't know much about it. I've started buying some silver due to the rather low price at present. I don't have heaps to invest right now, so it's very slow going. Would love to hear more.

I'm really curious about high silver content coins, are they flippable fairly easily? We don't have heaps of them here but I can buy bags or packs of assorted stuff from one of the mints.

Would love to hear a bit more about bullion and coins, in the off-topic section of course.

[cobrajet25]

The 6105 is a perfect example of "conditional rarity" amongst watches.  They are a fairly common watch, but very susceptible to dial/hand issues.  Most were used hard.  So one that is truly mint commands quite a premium.

I don't think 6309s will do what the 6105s have done price-wise for this reason.  They don't have the 6105's "Achilles' Heel".

[tritto]

The Achilles heel of the 6309 is the Philippino chop shop. Without them there would be plenty more surviving on original (but imperfect condition).
On second thought, perhaps it is this abuse that results in few original pieces and higher prices.

[cd_god]

Apr 8, 2015 22:12:15 GMT -8 philsinclair said:

Flawed premise as there wern't that many 62MAS made and the number you use might possibly been the total output  of Seiko for those three years. When I first joined the old SCWF, many members thought 62 MAS as being a myth there were so few about. The advancement of the Internet has contributed to us seeing many emerge but still they are not for sale that often. The prices you quote are also quite low and would suggest any available at those prices should be snapped up immediately as they can be resold for more than that. As far as genuine NOS goes, name your figure, it will be much more than $1500. Cheers Phil

I know that there weren't 3.6 million 62MAS made just that it was possible.

The point I was trying to make was even for the worst of the worst non rescueable 62MAS (or insert your favorite Rolex or what ever watch here) vs a top shelf NOS that the point spread was not proportional for each given hobby.